Conservative Conundrum: 2026 South Australia election analysis
What does the state election say about the 'new' state of Australian politics?
Analysis of the South Australian state election results came thick and fast – shortly after polls closed the election was called for Labor with Peter Malinauskas returned as premier, and the focus immediately turned to One Nation. This was, supposedly, the ‘first real test’ of what Australian politics will be like in the post-Liberal era.
The final picture is almost clear. At time of writing, out of 47 lower house seats…
- Labor won 34
- Liberals won 5 – could end up on max 7 seats
- One Nation won 3 – could end up on max 4 seats
- Independents won 4
- One seats remain in doubt, Narungga, which as Antony Green explains: "One Nation’s Chantelle Thomas has claimed victory by 71 votes but there will be a re-count."
After reading all the analysis, commentary and expert opinion, it needs to be said: no one has a clear picture about what this means for the ‘new’ political landscape in Australia.
I’ve seen a lot of convincing insights about individual aspects of the SA election result, but many of these well-reasoned ideas contradict each other. When you put them all together, it doesn’t create a complete picture of what’s going on.
Here’s what I think the two most important takeaways are: state politics ≠ federal politics, and the most ideologically conservative voters are now putting One Nation #1 instead of the Liberals. While some people are saying One Nation is speaking to a widespread disillusionment with politics, based only on the SA results – I don’t think that’s true.
